"What's your win rate?" — the most asked question in trading communities. And one of the most misleading. Win rate alone tells you nothing about whether a trader is profitable. Yet traders keep chasing it as if a higher win rate automatically means they're better.
Win rate without RR is useless
An 80% win rate with an average loss of $500 and an average win of $50 is a losing strategy. A 35% win rate with an average loss of $100 and an average win of $300 is a winning strategy. Win rate means nothing without risk-reward.
Break-even win rate per risk-reward
For every risk-reward ratio, there's a minimum win rate to break even. If you know yours, you know how much margin you have:
| Risk-Reward | Break-even win rate | Good at |
|---|---|---|
| 1:1 | 50% | >55% win rate |
| 1:1.5 | 40% | >45% win rate |
| 1:2 | 33% | >38% win rate |
| 1:3 | 25% | >30% win rate |
| 1:4 | 20% | >25% win rate |
If you have a 1:2 RR and a 40% win rate, you have a comfortable margin above break-even — regardless of the fact that 40% sounds low.
What's a "normal" win rate by strategy type?
ICT / SMC traders (FVG, OB, liquidity)
Typical win rate: 40–55%. Risk-reward: 1:2 to 1:4. Setups are selective and entries are precise — leading to average win rate but excellent RR. Profitable with consistent execution.
Scalpers and momentum traders
Typical win rate: 55–70%. Risk-reward: 1:1 to 1:1.5. A high win rate is a necessity here — the RR is too low to compensate for a low win rate. More trades, tighter risk management.
Swing traders
Typical win rate: 35–50%. Risk-reward: 1:3 to 1:6. A low win rate is acceptable if winners are large enough. Patience is the primary requirement.
How to calculate your win rate correctly
Win rate = number of winning trades / total trades × 100.
But watch out for distortion: count all trades — including impulsive ones outside your plan. If you only count your "good" trades, you give yourself a false picture of your actual performance. Analyze separately: trades that met your criteria vs. trades that didn't. The second group almost always destroys your average.
Why a rising win rate can be a bad sign
If your win rate suddenly rises but your average win per trade falls, it may mean you're exiting too early. You're "securing" profits before the target is reached, which shrinks your RR. Short-term this feels good — more winners. Long-term it's damaging to your expectancy.
Traders who exit too early often have a win rate of 60–70%, but their average RR has dropped to 1:0.8. They're losing money without knowing it — because they're looking at the wrong statistic.
The right question: what's your break-even win rate?
Instead of chasing a specific win rate percentage, ask yourself: what is my break-even win rate given my average RR? Everything above that number is profitable. How much buffer do you have? Is that buffer large enough to absorb statistically normal losing streaks?
That's the question that matters.
Conclusion
There is no universal "good" win rate. 35% can be excellent at 1:4 RR. 70% can be a losing strategy at 1:0.5 RR. What matters is the combination — and the only metric that correctly summarizes both is expectancy. Focus on expectancy, not win rate.
Frequently asked questions
Read also: What is Expectancy? · Trading statistics every trader should track